SW - Sadly, I wonder about that. I mean, it could be they are just pompous and overconfident without the skill to back it, but the end result isn't that much different.
There is no reason the movers and shakers out there should not have seen this possibility. The EU may have been pressing the Ukrainians forward (And their efforts did not get a Russian military response, even when the President there made a deal for new elections, until the mob ran him out despite the agreement) but they should have known given the Georgia events a few years ago that this was possible, and whatever the US Administration was doing they should have been able to tell the EU. Unless the Obama Administration was completely detached from it, which may be true. The height of the idiocy was a couple days ago, when the Secretary of Defense advocated cutting Army troop numbers and the A-10 wart hog in one press conference on the same day Susan Rice (Yes, she of the Benghazi video infamy) was walking out to warn the Russians not to invade in another one. Followed a couple days later by a warning to them not to invade from the President himself, after they had already invaded.
There seems to be no EU or US preparedness in any way as far as forces in the region, logistics, or any plan to arrange them in time to do anything. (For what it is worth, I heard reports that the Poles were advising the Ukrainians to stand down after Yanukovich agreed to the election, they were apparently the only ones who figured this could happen and were telling the Ukrainians.)
The real mind blower is that Tom Clancy predicted this kind of scenario in his last book, I guess no one at the EU or in the Administration read it. They should have. In that one, even with pre-positioned assets and trained personnel it was a near run thing to even save the western part of Ukraine.
NATO as an entity has not even been mentioned in any news coverage that I have seen, except by Former UN Ambassador John Bolton when he goes on TV. He says a proposal to join NATO should be offered to the Ukraine, but could they hold out long enough for it to go through? The main thing I am taking away is that the Europeans are doing one thing, and we are doing another. It makes me wonder if the united NATO command structure is being used or not. Even Clinton went to NATO for a command structure when the Yugoslav problems came up in the 1990s.
Also, without forces in the region or a suitable plan at this point, going in half cocked could lead to disaster. This situation demands extreme competence, and I hope someone on our side has it. I haven't seen it in evidence yet. The main thing Russia wants is the ports in the Crimea, historically. Will they go for more? It depends. Right now the curve favors them, and they have a window to decide what to do next and how far to push it. International objections have not had much effect.