[William R. Moore]

Per an Israeli website, Russian troops have moved up the the east Ukrainian border and are poised to take action. Russia now calling Ukrainian government a "junta" and are dissing Obama.

Standby for a rerun of the 1937 liberation of the Sudatenland. Munich II conference to follow?

 

[DavidE]

Maybe. The one thing worse than staying out completely might be jumping in without proper preparations.

The thing to do now is reinforce NATO, but I haven't seen any plans to commit anywhere near the numbers needed to do that. The will is there, especially in the more eastern nations in NATO, but the time curve has been brutal. The slowness of the reaction and lack of preparation over the last few months hasn't helped.

 

[DavidE]

Someone on another internet forum noted that by taking unarmed NATO observers hostage and threatening them, the Russians violated an article of the Geneva convention. They are using the "They are really locals we don't control" thing to the max and no one is calling them on it. Most disturbing, the people sent into Indian Country were sent in by higher ups who don't seem to get the situation or what they are dealing with.

By parading the hostages before cameras there are other POW norms being violated, similar to the Argentines who paraded British POWs before cameras when they went into the Falklands.

It is reminding me of the scene in The Dirty Dozen when the War Exercise is on and the Dozen throw the rules out the window. The people running the show for Blue Team here need to get their stuff together, not send anyone into East Ukraine at all without proper security, and possibly look into whether they can find where the prisoners are being held. If a rescue can be done, I say do it. Things don't look good for these people if nothing is done. ( I still can't figure out who'd order them in there with just international law as cover. Blue Team needs to wake up and recognize the pattern of the Red Team's behavior. They needed to do that months ago.)

Another example of the Russians using the "Irregulars" excuse to the max, as the knocking off of a local Mayor was probably authorized at a pretty high level:

Eastern Ukraine slips further into chaos as violence flares and mayor shot - Telegraph

 

[William R. Moore]

The Russians don't have control over the "progressive political elements"? Hack, gaff cough. They'll probably claim those holding the observers are the criminal thugs who stole the election, thereby oppressing the ethnic Russian populace. Stand by for the rescue by Spetznez. Besides, Hillary already demonstrated that diplomatic personnel are expendable and no significant reaction will folllow.

There are entirely too many people who don't realize Alice in Wonderland was satire, not a description of how to view the world.

 

[WaltGraham]

There are entirely too many people who don't realize Alice in Wonderland was satire, not a description of how to view the world.

I spend a fair amount of time on the Washington Post comment boards.

The consensus opinion there remains that it's all (still) Bush's fault.

You can almost see the "progressive" commentariat shaking their fists like Kirk in the Wrath of Khan screaming "Booooossssshhh"...

 

[Kevin Gibson]

Certainly there are some parallels to Sudatenland in '37, but there are also differences. Putin may not be a swell guy, but he's no Hitler by a long shot.

If there is military action in Ukraine, then we'd better know crystal clear what our objectives are before we commit to a land war with Russia in their back yard. Otherwise, we could find ourselves in a VERY bad situation. Russia isn't a 3rd world military, they're very competent.

 

[DavidE]

Kevin, my take from the beginning of this has been that we need to build NATO back up and work on getting the Euros off Russian gas and coal and onto ours. Right now we can use the time this is buying to get organized. There is a pattern in the leadership of the US, and Western Europe, of doing stuff both unplanned and slow, the worst of both worlds.

Getting NATO built up again will take time. Running into the Ukraine half cocked would be a disaster. If we do anything, it should be getting weapons, etc. from other former Eastern Bloc type nations (Anti Tank missiles, etc.) and supplying the Ukrainians with them quietly, to deter the Russians from pushing in father than they already have. Direct involvement wouldn't be smart in my opinion, but I could see this bunch blundering in by doing something that was both ill advised and done with insufficient force to be effective.

Kerry is the last person I would have picked as Secretary of State, of course. In the first Peace Talks he ever participated in, he was working for the other side.

 

[Skeptic49]

What is being delivered is the same message as the "Clinton Doctrine." If you do not have nuclear weapons, you are a joke, not a real country.

Ukraine surrendered it's nukes for "guarantees" from the US of A and the Russians...and we all know what that is worth since the US of A sold out the South in Viet Nam.

Geoff
Who is old gray and cynical.

 

[TommyGunn]

Certainly there are some parallels to Sudatenland in '37, but there are also differences. Putin may not be a swell guy, but he's no Hitler by a long shot.

If there is military action in Ukraine, then we'd better know crystal clear what our objectives are before we commit to a land war with Russia in their back yard. Otherwise, we could find ourselves in a VERY bad situation. Russia isn't a 3rd world military, they're very competent.

They're "competent," ..... but they are not "very" competent.
The point, however, is moot. We're not going to be doing anything about this that involves war.

P.S. -- the biggest difference between Hitler & Putin?

Opportunity.

Oh wait...Hitler was borderline dysfunctional, Putin isn't. Putin is very functional, hence a lot more dangerous.:evil:

 

[Kevin Gibson]

Kevin, my take from the beginning of this has been that we need to build NATO back up and work on getting the Euros off Russian gas and coal and onto ours. Right now we can use the time this is buying to get organized. There is a pattern in the leadership of the US, and Western Europe, of doing stuff both unplanned and slow, the worst of both worlds.

Getting NATO built up again will take time. Running into the Ukraine half cocked would be a disaster. If we do anything, it should be getting weapons, etc. from other former Eastern Bloc type nations (Anti Tank missiles, etc.) and supplying the Ukrainians with them quietly, to deter the Russians from pushing in father than they already have. Direct involvement wouldn't be smart in my opinion, but I could see this bunch blundering in by doing something that was both ill advised and done with insufficient force to be effective.

Kerry is the last person I would have picked as Secretary of State, of course. In the first Peace Talks he ever participated in, he was working for the other side.

We need to be very careful how we go about building NATO up. Much of the angst from Putin comes from the US and NATO courting former Soviet Republics that are on the Russian border. Those nations want protection from Russia, and Russia want's a buffer zone between them and whom they see as potential enemies.

So as long as we support NATO membership for nations that border Russia, we're going to find ourselves butting heads with Russia. They are the most invaded nation in history (with the possible exception of Jericho), so the Russian paranoia is a bit justified.

If you're going to bully and antagonize people, don't bully and antagonize the 7 foot tall,300lb kid with the stick; that's just too adventurous.

 

[DavidE]

Kevin - I tend to agree, and I think that was part of what happened in Ukraine.

The Political Leaders in Western Europe and in the US believed that "soft power" was the cure for all ills and that they could use it without fear of military countermoves. After what happened in Georgia a few years back, that was a very dumb move. Of course, the political leadership in the west hasn't been too smart for a number of years now.

It is almost like they went out of their way to poke the "Bear" and are now going out of their way to show weakness now that the Bear is on the move.

 

[Kevin Gibson]

Kevin - I tend to agree, and I think that was part of what happened in Ukraine.

The Political Leaders in Western Europe and in the US believed that "soft power" was the cure for all ills and that they could use it without fear of military countermoves. After what happened in Georgia a few years back, that was a very dumb move. Of course, the political leadership in the west hasn't been too smart for a number of years now.

It is almost like they went out of their way to poke the "Bear" and are now going out of their way to show weakness now that the Bear is on the move.

Yeah you think they would have learned after Bush got his pee-pee slapped in Georgia. But there's money to be had in Ukraine, and I'm sure the people who pull Obama's strings are probably the same who pulled Bush's strings. They don't much care about the consequences, they just want the business and they'll prod politicians into doing their bidding.

 

[DavidE]

I hear you. Especially because "business deals" and "trade negotiations" were being signed in Kiev as the Crimea was falling and Ukraine's navy was, for all practical purposes, ceasing to exist.

I'm pretty sure the people getting paid don't care if the government they signed the deals with is still there in a year. The ability of so many national (and international) leaders to ignore the fact that someone else's tanks being parked in a capital city will invalidate any deals or business arrangements that government may have signed is completely mind-boggling. I feel horrible for the Ukrainians. I have a feeling they put a lot of trust in people who were not quite serious about helping them when the rubber actually met the road.

 

[TommyGunn]

Yeah you think they would have learned after Bush got his pee-pee slapped in Georgia. But there's money to be had in Ukraine, and I'm sure the people who pull Obama's strings are probably the same who pulled Bush's strings. They don't much care about the consequences, they just want the business and they'll prod politicians into doing their bidding.

Actually Bush didn't get his "peepee" (whatever THAT is :ek: ) slapped in Georgia. There were actually Georgian servicemen in A'stan at the time and he sent them back home. It wasn't a total win for the good guys but it did give the "Bear" a nasty welt on its nose.

As far as "pulling strings" is concerned -- maybe Shrubbie atleast HAD some~~what passes for Obama's is a mass of linguini, Gordion Knots, and other strange entanglements one dares not examine too closely. :neer:

 

[CaptainGyro]

Putin hasn't yet (that I know of) put one of his biggest piles of chips on the table: the threat of withholding launch services for our manned space missions.

Obama, in his wisdom, decided that we could retire the shuttles before a replacement man-rated vehicle was in place, relying in the meantime on the Russians for seats into orbit. Standing up to Putin might mean a few years of no Americans in space.

 

[TommyGunn]

Putin hasn't yet (that I know of) put one of his biggest piles of chips on the table: the threat of withholding launch services for our manned space missions.

Obama, in his wisdom, decided that we could retire the shuttles before a replacement man-rated vehicle was in place, relying in the meantime on the Russians for seats into orbit. Standing up to Putin might mean a few years of no Americans in space.

Putin hasn't threatened to withhold launch services because we underwrite a great deal of the expenses for said launches. He could -- and might -- do it, but he'd be cutting his own throat as well.
As far as O's retiring the shuttles; don't you know the only legitimate purpose for NASA now is an outreach program for Muslims?:help:

 

[CaptainGyro]

Excellent points.

 

[Kevin Gibson]

Actually Bush didn't get his "peepee" (whatever THAT is :ek: ) slapped in Georgia. There were actually Georgian servicemen in A'stan at the time and he sent them back home. It wasn't a total win for the good guys but it did give the "Bear" a nasty welt on its nose.

As far as "pulling strings" is concerned -- maybe Shrubbie atleast HAD some~~what passes for Obama's is a mass of linguini, Gordion Knots, and other strange entanglements one dares not examine too closely. :neer:

But did get his pee-pee slapped. The whole Georgian thing was REALLY about a pipeline that would have bypassed Russia, and Bush was behind the whole thing. And the Georgians thought they had US support, so they got a bit belligerent and the whole thing blew up in their face; and Bush's face. The press didn't pick up on the pipeline thing until well after all was done and over with; so Bush managed to save face here, but everyone in Eastern Europe knows what really happened.

 

[TommyGunn]

So Georgia is now a wholly owned and operated Russian property now, as Crimea and eastern Ukraine is about to become?

 

[Kevin Gibson]

My recollection was that South Ossetia was partially annexed because that's what the Ossetians they wanted. Russia's war with Georgia lasted less than a week, and they withdrew from Georgia nearly as quickly as they went in. Separatists form Ossetia shelled Georgia, then Georgia invaded, and Russia countered.